The new CAFE rules for trucks are final, and the most useful number for pickup buyers is not the widely repeated 34.9 mpg. That is a projected average across new passenger cars and light trucks in model year 2031. A full-size pickup does not have to return 34.9 mpg, and the number is not comparable to the EPA combined rating on its window sticker.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration released its final Corporate Average Fuel Economy rule Monday, Sept. 28. It revises standards for model years 2022 through 2031, changes how some SUVs qualify for the light-truck fleet beginning in 2030 and ends trading of newly earned CAFE credits between manufacturers beginning in 2028. The rule has been signed and submitted for Federal Register publication. Its effective date is 60 days after that publication.
What are the new CAFE targets for light trucks?
NHTSA projects a required light-truck fleet average of 30.3 mpg in model year 2027, 30.6 mpg in 2029, 26.2 mpg in 2030 and 26.4 mpg in 2031. Those are modeled averages of the targets applying to vehicles in that class, not a single standard for every truck. The agency says light-truck standards increase 0.51% annually from the reset 2022 baseline through 2029 and 1% in 2031, with a classification transition in 2030.
Why does the light-truck figure drop in 2030? NHTSA expects smaller, more efficient crossovers to leave that category. The remaining light-truck fleet will contain a larger share of pickups and larger SUVs, pulling down the class average even if the vehicles themselves do not suddenly become less efficient. The agency projects 34.9 mpg for the combined car-and-truck fleet in 2031, compared with the 50.4 mpg projection under its 2024 rule. NHTSA stresses that the binding standards are footprint-based curves, and the eventual fleet average depends on what automakers sell.
Why towing and payload now matter to SUV classification
Beginning with model year 2030, a vehicle can qualify as a non-passenger automobile, the CAFE light-truck category, through a new light-duty work factor. The final formula adds payload capacity and trailer weight rating, with a threshold of at least 8,500 pounds. The trailer rating for this route is determined under SAE J2807. In the proposal, NHTSA had suggested a different weighted formula and a 2028 start; the final rule changed both.
That 8,500-pound number is a sum used to classify a vehicle for manufacturer compliance. It is not a new towing requirement and does not mean an SUV can safely tow 8,500 pounds. A conventional pickup with an open bed already has a separate way to qualify as a light truck. The new calculation is most consequential for crossovers and SUVs that previously used a seating or clearance route. NHTSA also retains an off-highway route, but from 2030 it requires the prescribed approach, breakover and departure angles plus running clearance. AWD by itself does not meet those clearance tests.
Will pickups become cheaper or use more gas?
The Transportation Department says the rule will lower average new-vehicle cost by about $1,300. In the final rule, NHTSA models a $1,289 reduction in regulatory technology cost per model year 2031 vehicle against its no-action case, if manufacturers pass the savings to consumers. That is an industrywide estimate, not a promised discount on a Silverado, F-150, Ram 1500 or any other model.
There is a fuel-cost tradeoff. NHTSA estimates gasoline consumption through 2050 will be 4.6% higher under the final rule than under its no-action baseline, while the agency expects absolute fleet fuel use to decline over time as vehicles turn over. What a particular truck costs to own still depends on its actual engine, EPA rating, purchase price, miles driven and fuel price. The rule does not require a manufacturer to bring back a V8 or abandon a hybrid.
What about heavy-duty pickups and EV credits?
The new rule sets passenger-car and light-truck CAFE standards. The separate fuel-efficiency standards NHTSA set in 2024 for heavy-duty pickups and vans for model years 2030 through 2035 are a different program; this announcement should not be read as a new MPG target for a 2500- or 3500-series work truck.
For the light-duty fleet, manufacturers may no longer trade CAFE credits earned in model year 2028 or later with other manufacturers. Credits earned through 2027 can still be used under the final rule’s transition provisions. That affects compliance strategy, including companies that have sold credits from EV production, but it does not prohibit automakers from selling electric pickups or hybrids.
The bottom line for truck buyers
Expect manufacturers to have more room in how they plan gasoline, diesel, hybrid and electric light-duty fleets. Do not translate a fleetwide CAFE projection into an individual truck’s MPG, sticker price or tow rating. The 2030 classification change is especially worth watching for SUVs marketed around towing and off-road capability. This is NHTSA’s fuel-economy rule, separate from EPA vehicle-emissions requirements.
Sources: NHTSA final rule (signed Sept. 25, 2026); DOT announcement (Sept. 28, 2026); NHTSA 2024 rule summary.
